‘Doomsday Swarm’ Hides 14 Large Asteroids That Could Hit Earth In Future, Scientists Say

Up to 14, possibly “kilometer-class” space rocks could lurk within a long-feared stream of space debris known to drift near Earth. However, a recent hunt for large asteroids within the Taurid Swarm, dubbed the “Doomsday” asteroid swarm, revealed fewer than astronomers expected.

“Fortunately, we found that it’s likely there may only be a handful of asteroids — perhaps only nine to 14 of them — that fit this large size class in the swarm,” said Quanzhi Ye, an assistant research scientist in the Department of Astronomy at the University of Maryland, who supervised the project.


If the relatively small number of dangerous asteroids close to Earth is reassuring in some ways, the researchers think their findings underscore the need for vigilance and better detection capabilities.


Rare Opportunity

The scientists used the Zwicky Transient Facility telescope at the Palomar Observatory, California, to survey the night sky for evidence of massive space rocks in the Taurid swarm.


“We took advantage of a rare opportunity when this swarm of asteroids passed closer to Earth, allowing us to more efficiently search for objects that could threaten our planet,” said Ye. “Our findings suggest that the risk of being hit by a large asteroid in the Taurid swarm is much lower than we believed, which is great news for planetary defense.”
Taurid Swarm

What astronomers fear most when it comes to planetary defense is the Taurid swarm, a vast stream of material in the solar system that Earth slowly moves through every year as it orbits the sun. It's suspected of containing the remains of a 100-kilometer (62-mile) wide asteroid or comet called 2P/Encke that broke up about 20,000 to 30,000 years ago, with some of those remains possibly “kilometer-class” space rocks.

“Judging from our findings, the parent object that originally created the swarm was probably closer to 10 kilometers in diameter rather than a massive 100-kilometer object,” said Ye. “While we still need to be vigilant about asteroid impacts, we can probably sleep better knowing these results.”
‘Halloween Fireballs’

The Taurid Swarm is best known for producing two annual meteor showers, which are perfectly safe. The Southern Taurids peak on Nov. 5 while the Northern Taurids peak on Nov. 12, with about five “shooting stars”" expected per hour around midnight on each occasion.

Since both have reasonably long peak rates, their shooting stars can often be seen in late October, giving them the nickname “Halloween fireballs.”

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